Louisiana Economic Activity Forecast 2021:Q4

The Louisiana Economic Activity Forecast provides data and analysis to policymakers, the business community, and general public. The report presents baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios for key Louisiana economic indicators.

Scenarios and projections will be updated quarterly to reflect the most up-to-date economic outlook for the U.S. economy and other vital sectors that are influential in shaping Louisiana’s economic activity. The report is compiled by Dr. Gary A. Wagner, professor and Acadiana Business Economist/BORSF Endowed Chair in Economics at B.I. Moody III College of Business Administration.

Executive Summary

Professional forecasters have weakened their outlook for the U.S. economy for the second consecutive quarter. Growth is expected to average 4% over the next year, a reduction of almost one percentage point from the second quarter. Despite a slowing national economy, the outlook for Louisiana remains largely unchanged. The unemployment rate fell more than expected over the past three months, primarily due to individuals continuing to drop out of the labor force. If all of the individuals who dropped out of the labor force since 2021:Q1 remained in the labor force, the state’s unemployment rate is estimated to be 9.7%. This is 4 percentage points higher than the of cial rate. After losing almost 1,000 jobs between the first and second quarters, the state gained 3,400 jobs in the third quarter and is expected to add an additional 37,000 jobs over the next year. Hurricane Ida sharply reduced employment in the Houma-Thibodaux and New Orleans metro areas in September. Both regions are expected to grow more slowly in the near-term. Louisiana now ranks 50th in the nation in terms of the percentage of COVID-related job losses that have been recovered. Home price growth remains solid but is expected to slow in early-to-mid 2022 as inventory levels normalize.

Every forecasting model contains uncertainty.The results in this report are intended to provide broad guidance and should not be a direct cause for decision-making. This is particularly true now in light of the evolving global pandemic surrounding COVID-19. 

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2021:Q4 Louisiana Economic Activity Forecast >

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2022 Report Release Schedule

First Quarter: February 18, 2022
Second Quarter: May 20, 2022
Third Quarter: August 19, 2022
Fourth Quarter: November 18, 2022