Louisiana Economic Activity Forecast 2021:Q3

The Louisiana Economic Activity Forecast provides data and analysis to policymakers, the business community, and general public. The report presents baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios for key Louisiana economic indicators.

Scenarios and projections will be updated quarterly to reflect the most up-to-date economic outlook for the U.S. economy and other vital sectors that are influential in shaping Louisiana’s economic activity. The report is compiled by Dr. Gary A. Wagner, professor and Acadiana Business Economist/BORSF Endowed Chair in Economics at B.I. Moody III College of Business Administration.

Executive Summary

The outlook for the U.S. economy remains strong despite being recently downgraded by professional forecasters. Over the next year, forecasters expect the U.S. economy to grow at an average rate of 4.95%. As previously projected, U.S. GDP surpassed its pre-pandemic peak for the first time in the second quarter. GDP also exceeds pre-pandemic levels in 15 different states. In contrast to the nation, Louisiana’s economic recovery slowed sharply between the first and second quarters. While home prices and GDP grew, the state gained zero (net) jobs between Q1 and Q2. Louisiana now ranks in the bottom five states in terms of the recovery, having regained only 39% of the 285,000 jobs lost in 2020 due to the pandemic. Although the unemployment rate fell from 7.5 to 7.1% between the first and second quarters, the entire reduction was the result of people dropping out of the labor force. Relative to the 12-months prior to COVID-19, an estimated 58,000 fewer people in Louisiana are either working or actively looking for work. Based on slowing activity and the downgrading of the national outlook, Louisiana is now projected to gain 29,000 jobs over the next four quarters. This is a 60% reduction from the previous report.

Every forecasting model contains uncertainty.The results in this report are intended to provide broad guidance and should not be a direct cause for decision-making. This is particularly true now in light of the evolving global pandemic surrounding COVID-19. 

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2021 Report Release Schedule

Fourth Quarter: November 19, 2021